US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf raised a lot of interest, with commentators analyzing and reflecting on the implications of his first foreign trip and the impact on US-Gulf relations and peace and stability in the region. Some commentators classed the visit as purely economic, with Trump aiming to sign mega-deals with the rich Gulf states, but this analysis, although true to an extent, missed an important point: the Gulf states now hold key roles and positions in regional and global affairs. The Gulf states have risen significantly in recent times under the leadership of ambitious leaders who are intent on transforming their nations and extending this transformation to the region. Hence, for an accurate analysis of Trump’s first choice of foreign visit, it is important to posit the visit in the context of changing Gulf dynamics, with the Gulf states now at the center of global competition, with powers like the United States, China and Russia vying for their attention. However, more importantly, the Gulf states have adopted a new pragmatic and diversified foreign policy, a multi-vectored policy that balances the global axes without undermining their own national and strategic interests.
Saudi Arabia was the first destination of Trump’s tour, with much focus on the extensive economic deals as well as on the defense and security agreements signed. However, what cannot be missed is the importance of the kingdom in helping to resolve and settle various regional issues, including Yemen, Syria and Iran. Given this context, it is not surprising that Trump chose Riyadh as his first destination, as the Saudi leadership is expressing a regional vision based on peace, stability and coexistence that appeals to Trump’s desire to end the chaos and crises in the Middle East, freeing up the United States to pivot to the Indo-Pacific to focus on China. Trump is fully aware that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a visionary leader who wants to transform the kingdom and region and is willing to mediate in crises to settle conflicts in the region. This is in line with Trump’s foreign policy vision of having a hands-off approach to crises and conflicts and creating space for regional actors to take on the responsibility rather than depending on US hard power and its security umbrella. In this context, the crown prince has played a critical role in Trump’s cessation of sanctions on the new Syrian administration. These developments illustrate the crown prince’s growing political stature and influence as well as the Gulf’s growing imprint on regional geopolitics. In addition, unlike the Obama and Biden administrations, Trump appears to be listening to Saudi and Gulf positions when it comes to US-Iran nuclear talks, with the Gulf states wanting agreements that also address other contentious issues such as Iran’s missile program and support for regional proxies that have caused havoc in the region.
Despite Saudi Arabia strengthening relations with the United States through agreements, initiatives and programs, it has not signaled a shift from other key partnerships such as with China and Russia. Under Vision 2030, the kingdom aims to diversify its economy and partnerships, and this entails establishing and strengthening relations with a host of important countries, so far, the kingdom under the leadership of the crown prince has shown much skill and adeptness in navigating the volatile geopolitical space and the rivalries and competition that exists. There is no abandoning of these relations and partnerships, there is no shift from the Global South, but at the same time, the kingdom has signalled its intent to act as a bridge between the Global North and Global South and help in navigating and addressing international issues and crises.
There is no holding back the kingdom’s rise, with it contributing to shaping many critical sectors such as tech, AI, the green economy and innovation. Long gone is the labeling of the kingdom and the Gulf states as mere oil centers, with these states now at the forefront of innovation, exemplified by the rush of global powers to establish partnerships. Trump’s visit was a shock to Iran and Israel, as it represents a clear shift in regional tectonics and power dynamics, and a lesson for these states is that they need to present progressive agendas and visions like the kingdom and the Gulf states to be included in the regional sphere rather than to be viewed as pariahs or isolated states which are hell-bent on causing crises and conflicts rather than contributing to the shaping of a new Middle East. A “Europe” in the Middle East may be on the horizon despite the chaotic situation one witnesses in the region but it is important to note that any transformations will be in line with the interests, aspirations and ambitions of the peoples and consistent with the national interests of regional states, with the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, setting an example for other states to aspire to and emulate for the sake of socioeconomic development and political evolution when it comes to governance.
