The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) has issued the Iran Case File (ICF) for January 2023. The file provides readers in general and researchers in particular with an in-depth analysis and overview of Iran’s variant interactions and affairs. The file is divided into two main parts: Internal Affairs and External Affairs (regional and international affairs).
In Internal Affairs, the ICF for January 2023 sheds light on five essential files. In the Political File, the role of the growing popular discontent in deepening the legitimacy crisis that the Iranian government is facing, which has recently taken on a new character, with former officials and “reformist” figures calling for regime change is discussed. In the Economic File, the new Iranian fiscal year’s budget bill starting from March 21, 2023, is spotlighted. The file provides answers to several questions such as those related to the government’s priorities in light of the domestic situation it is experiencing, and how the government will secure the new budget’s revenues. The Military File casts light on the significance of Iran’s defense cooperation with Russia, the potential implications for regional and global security and Iran’s potential gains from this partnership, particularly with regard to obtaining some Russian-made fighter jets. Regarding the Ideological File, it highlights the criticisms leveled by Sunni scholar Moulavi Abdulhamid against the Iranian government’s security policies as well as the campaigns waged against Abdulhamid by newspapers close to the ruling establishment to publicly mar his reputation. The fifth file discusses Iran’s internal and social issues. In this file, the rise in some dangerous trends in Iranian society such as brain drain and suicides caused by deteriorating living conditions are highlighted.
External Affairs discuses Iranian relations and interactions with Arab and international actors. At the Arab level, the Gulf states, represented by Qatar and the Oman, served as two outlets for Iran. The two countries are making huge efforts to bring close the viewpoints of Iran and the Western countries, whether with regard to the nuclear talks or discussing the tensions between the two sides. These tensions were generated after the Western countries accused Iran of supporting Russia in its war on Ukraine. In the context of Iraq, the file discusses the domestic and foreign characteristics of the policy of the new Iraqi premier toward Iran, his internal and external motives to pursue the policy of striking balances and the challenges obstructing him from pursuing this policy. As for Syria, the file discusses the tour of Iran’s foreign minister which included Syria, Lebanon and Turkey and the messages Iran wanted to send through this tour. With regard to Yemen, the file discusses the new round of peace talks aimed to bring to a halt the Yemeni crisis and the Houthis’ position on the international efforts to bring about peace in Yemen.
Internationally, the file discusses the decline of diplomatic efforts to revive the nuclear deal and the United States resuming the policy of pressures, deterrence and sanctions through three courses of action: supporting internal protests, targeting drone-manufacturing facilities and attacking the Iranian oil industry. When it comes to Europe-Iran relations, the file discusses the significant deterioration in relations between the two sides, with the European countries opting for imposing sanctions on the IRGC as a result of the violent repression carried out by the Iranian government against protesters and its continued support for Russia in its war on Ukraine.