The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) issued the Iran Case File (ICF) for October and November 2022. The file provides readers in general and researchers in particular with an in-depth analysis and overview of Iran’s variant interactions and affairs. The file is divided into three main parts: Internal Affairs, Arab Affairs, and International Affairs.
Five topics were discussed in Internal Affairs for the months of October and November 2022. The Ideological File shed light on the Friday prayer preachers’ justification for the Iranian authorities’ use of violence against protesters, as well as the Sunnis’ criticism of this violence. The Political File highlighted the protests that have been going on for three months despite the repression, how the regime has attempted to handle the protesters, the implications of the protests for domestic security and for the standing of religious figures, and finally the criticisms leveled by reformists at home and the growing role of external opposition. The Economic File was devoted to discussing the old and new reasons for the Iranian currency’s decline against the US dollar, as well as the future implications of this decline. The Military File, meanwhile, cast light on three main themes: the display of military strength between Iran and Azerbaijan, the Iranian bet on missiles and satellites, and the drone and missile attacks on northern Iraq. With regard to the Social File, it discussed the morality police’s role in Iran and how it has played a role in arranging the public sphere as well as the new generation in Iran and its role in the current protests.
Arab Affairs discussed three key topics, the first of which highlighted Iran-Gulf interactions in the context of two significant developments: Iranian threats to Saudi Arabia and the return of international interest in securing energy supplies amid Iranian threats. Meanwhile, the second topic focused on Iran-Yemen interactions by discussing the dimensions of the Houthi escalation and attacks on oil installations in Yemen, the implications of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council’s designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization, and the international and UN position on the Houthi militia’s escalation. The third topic focused on Iran-Syria interactions in three areas: the return of Hamas to Damascus and Iranian efforts behind this move, Iranian and Turkish attacks on Kurds in northern Syria and Iraq, and the resumption of Israeli assassination operations against Iranian military leaders in Syria.
International Affairs discussed the Iranian interactions with the United States and Europe. With regard to US-Iran relations, the interactions between the two sides were addressed through four topics: the stalled nuclear talks and Iran’s reduction of its nuclear commitments; Washington’s intent to intensify sanctions and support the Iranian protests; and finally its enhancement of regional deterrence capabilities and Iranian attempts to impose counter pressures. As for Iran-Europe relations, the most prominent interactions between the two sides in October and November 2022 were monitored, including the European reactions to the protests in Iran as well as the growing concern about Iran’s nuclear program and its arsenal.