The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) has released the Iran Case File for September 2024, providing both readers in general and researchers in particular with comprehensive analysis on the latest developments pertaining to Iran. The report evaluates the Iranian situation and assess its various conditions and interactions. It is divided into three sections: (1) Iranian internal affairs, (2) Iranian-Arab interactions, and (3) Iran’s relations with regional and international powers.
Regarding internal affairs, Iran witnessed numerous developments during September 2024 across political, economic, military, social, and ideological spheres. Key topics include: the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and the reemergence of political divisions within Iran, significant breaches and challenges in Iran’s banking sector, Iranian efforts to enhance its military capabilities and address security gaps, renewed controversy over the issue of Afghan immigrants, and the impact of the seminary and Islamist groups’ reactions to Nasrallah’s assassination.
In terms of Iranian-Arab interactions, significant events took place. In Iraq, the involvement of pro-Iran militias in the regional conflict was the most prominent event of the month. As for Syria, the assassination of Nasrallah is expected to have major repercussions on the Syrian landscape. Regarding the conflict between Iran and Israel, tensions peaked after Tehran launched its largest missile attack in response to Israel’s assassination of Nasrallah. With Israel threatening retaliation, there are growing fears that this escalation could spiral into a full-scale war that endangers the entire region.
The report explores Iranian interactions with Arab and regional countries through key issues such as the consequences of militia involvement in Iraq’s regional conflict, the assassination of Nasrallah and its impact on Syria, and the military confrontation between Iran and Israel following Nasrallah’s assassination.
At the level of Iranian interactions with international powers, Iran has made overtures toward the United States and the West, expressing a desire for openness, dialogue, and the restoration of diplomacy. However, ongoing tensions with Israel and continued Iranian support for Russia in the war against Ukraine have led the United States to view these moves with skepticism. The report delves into Iran’s interactions with the United States and Europe through two key lenses: US-Iran relations constrained by the multi-front war, and tightening European sanctions on Iran.
