The Arabian Gulf Center for Iranian Studies has recently released its first biannual report on the Iranian affairs. This is the first report of its kind that consists of 196 medium-sized pages divided into three parts: The Iranian internal affairs, The Iranian-Arab affairs, and the Iranian-International affairs. This report aims to introduce an outlook about all developments in Iran monitored and analyzed by the researchers of the Arabian Gulf Center for Iranian Studies over the last six months of 2016.
On the internal level, the report focuses on five central points: the state of tension between the institute of the presidency and the Supreme Leader; confrontations between the Iranian Presidency and the Judicial Authority; the institute of the presidency’s intervention in the disputes between the Judicial and Legislative Authorities; the military institute and its role in the Iranian internal affairs, the new year budgets allotted by the regime for the army, the revolutionary guards, and military industries; and a complete analysis for the Iranian military industries and other military affairs in light of the signs of conflict between Iran and the new US president Donald Trump.
The report analyses the security issue in Iran including the spread of fires in many Iranian cities, especially the bordering ones, and their indicators after some groups claimed responsibility for these fires in light of the oppression of minorities in Iran; and the future of the movements of the Non-Persian people in the Iranian provinces.
The report also handles the Iranian economic factor, which connects all other aspects, especially after the Iranian nuclear deal and lifting of sanctions imposed on Iran. It presents the negative and positive indicators of the Iranian economy over the second half of 2016 and suggests two possible scenarios for the future of the Iranian economy, supporting one over the other based on clear and accurate indicators. It pays attention to the Iranian banking system and its future tendencies, the exchange rate of the Iranian currency a year after signing the nuclear deal, the impact of the succession of Donald Trump to the US presidency on the Iranian banking system, the impact of all these factors on the living conditions of the Iranian citizens, the new draft budget and its impact on the Iranian citizens, and the most probable scenarios for the future of the Iranian economy.
On the Arab-Iranian relations, the report focuses on three aspects: the first is the future of the Gulf-Iranian relations and their determiners such as the Geopolitical and Eco-Oil factors, the sectarian bonds, population extension and the impact of the US invasion of Iraq 2003 on the regional balance of power. The second aspect discusses the Iranian intervention in its neighboring Gulf countries- giving Iraq and Yemen as examples and analyzing the impact of events in these two countries on the future Gulf-Iranian relations. The third aspect discusses the Iranian role in the Syrian crises; it focuses on the events, agreements, and disagreements, especially after the Russian growing role in Syria and decline of the American role in the Middle East region. It is noted that disagreement appeared between Iran and its strategic ally Russia, especially after the Russian attempts to diminish the Iranian role. Consequently, the report concludes the most probable scenarios during the next stage in terms of the contradiction of interests between Russia and Iran and the future of the Iranian presence in Syria.
On the international level, the report focuses on the EU-Iranian relations and the question of disagreement between the EU Parliament and the EU Council, and the EU countries foreign policies that differ from the unanimous EU foreign policy and their impact on the EU-Iranian relations. The report also handles the EU expectations to boost trade exchange with Iran, the EU strategy toward Iran in a torn-out region, and the future of the EU-Iranian relations after succession of Donald Trump to the US presidency, especially after his statements about rejection of the EU-Iranian cooperation and his tendency to repeal the nuclear deal or amend it.
The report concludes the European-Iranian relations by analyzing the Russian-Iranian relations. It handles their cooperation on the Syrian crisis, military cooperation and armament, economic cooperation in the oil and banking sectors, negotiations of Visa cancellation between the two countries, and cooperation in the space field. The report also presents the possible scenarios for relations between the two countries in light of their disagreement on the Syrian crisis and growing Turkish role and agreement with Russia on the future of Syria with diminishing of the Iranian role.
Finally, the report presents a comprehensive summary, in-depth examination of the most current issues of the Iranian affairs, and accurate reading for the Iranian future tendencies. This biannual report has been released by the AGCIS and is considered a rich reference for all concerned with the Iranian affairs on all levels based on daily monitoring and evaluation of the Iranian media and the international press specialized in the Iranian affairs.
