The International Institute for Iranian Studies, Rasanah, issued the Iran Case File for May 2024. The report aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the monitored period, offering researchers an accurate depiction of the Iranian situation, assessing its various conditions and interactions. The report is divided into three sections:
1. Developments in Iran’s Internal Affairs.
2. Iran-Arab Interactions.
3. Iran’s Relations With Regional and International Powers
Regarding Iranian internal affairs, May 2024 saw significant political, military, social, and ideological developments. Key issues include early presidential elections following the death of Ebrahim Raisi and several of his associates, Iran’s use of Turkish drones highlighting weaknesses in its military strategic capabilities, renewed debates over reproductive policies by human rights organizations, and interactions within the religious seminary concerning Ghadir Day and issues of authority.
In the context of Iranian-Arab interactions, notable developments occurred in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq, a new sectarian and ethnic controversy emerged after the Iraqi Parliament voted on a request by Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the Sadrist Movement, to designate Ghadir Day as an official holiday. This decision is expected to spark widespread debate in Iraq. In Syria, the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has led to various interpretations regarding the future of Iran’s foreign policy towards Syria. However, the prevailing expectation is that Iran’s approach to Syria will remain unchanged due to Syria’s importance in Iran’s regional strategy. The report discusses indicators of a new round of sectarian and ethnic conflict in Iraq and Iran-Syria relations post-Raisi.
At the level of Iranian interactions with international powers, relations between Washington and Tehran continue to be strained due to tensions following Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the Israeli war on Gaza. Both countries are entering a crucial phase, with Iran set to elect a new president to succeed the late Ebrahim Raisi and the United States also approaching a presidential election. These developments are expected to significantly impact US-Iran relations in the coming months. The report examines the potential effects of these leadership changes on US-Iran relations.
