In Convention of Commanders of IRGC Ground Forces, Brigadier-General Aziz Jafari said a well-known sentence, which he shouldn’t have. He said if U.S. follows up missile sanctions or putting sanctions on IRGC, a tension will be created which will force the Americans to dismantle their bases within 1,000 kilometers from Iran, and they should pay the high price of their miscalculation. In response to such a big claim, which was brought up by other IRGC commanders in different forms, one should say that incidentally, the danger of IRGC commanders’ miscalculation is much more threatening for Iran than threats of Trump’s administration.
Everybody knows Trump and believes that he is the most unpredictable president in the White House, who will be U.S. president for only one term. But IRGC commanders as heads of one of the two military forces of the country have made claims and threats which are not only baseless but unfortunately, their remarks are very much like remarks and bluffs of Mohammad Saeed Al-Sahhaf, Sadam’s Information Minister.
It doesn’t require any military knowledge to answer the question if IRGC has the capability and the equipment to engage simultaneously with all the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, all Israeli Army as U.S. ally, and heavily armed Gulf states. Because having a minimum of military knowledge about regional equations and formation of military equations of regional countries will show that IRGC commander, more than anything else, has lost control of his nerves.
Not a lot of contextual background is needed to prove that even if Iran had the considerable military capability, the country would be seriously damaged in any ground, sea, and air war, given that this country doesn’t have any reliable ally (perhaps Russia). And that is because today’s battles very much depend on modern, up-to-date equipment and weapons, but all Iran’s military facilities, except for its missile industry, belong to 40 years ago and are almost outdated. Consequently, under the current conditions, the most efficient strategy is avoiding tension and engagement and waiting for modification in anti-Iranian equations.
Nevertheless, our hypothesis is that Iran or at least IRGC has prepared such a great power that within 1,000 kilometers of all Iranian border, it can neutralize any equation or threat by the U.S., or even can reverse it against America itself. Now to assess IRGC’s hypothetical power, we should see how many U.S. bases or American allies are in the Middle East.
To understand the claims of IRGC’s commander and see how big is 1,000 kilometers, we must pay attention to several factors:
1. Iran is a vast country, and the distance between two points of the north west and north east with two points of south east and south west is more than 2,000 kilometers. It means that the distance between the city of Maku in the north west of Iran and Pasabandar in the south east of Iran, according to Google Map, is 2,238 kilometers. But the distance between Dargaz in the south east of Iran with the city of Abadan in the south west of Iran is 1,273 kilometers.
2. A brief look at the number of American bases located around Iran’s land and water borders in north, south, east and west of the country can show interesting results. According to claims of IRGC commander, America must shut down all the following bases within 1,000 kilometers of Iran’s land and water borders. Meanwhile, almost all U.S. bases around Iran’s land are less than 1,000 kilometers away. The list of these bases, along with their exact distances from Iran, is as follows, and Aziz Jafari believes that IRGC can simultaneously confront all these bases around Iran. The distances of these bases around Iran from the closest Iranian border is as follows:
380 kilometers, the most distant of U.S. bases in Kandahar, Afghanistan. One of the five U.S. military bases in this country.
581 kilometers, the distance between Bandar Abbas and the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. This center is the headquarters of U.S. Army for monitoring a circle with a radius of 2,000 kilometers.
139 kilometers, the distance from Abadan to Kuwait. Kuwait’s Mohammad Al-Ahmad Navy Base is used by the U.S. coastal guards and is considered as one of the branches the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.
389 kilometers, the distance between Bushehr and Qatar. Al Udeid Air Base, which has accommodated 11,000 U.S. army personnel, and is also one of the main operational centers for all regional coalitions. This base is one of the command centers of the U.S. Army and also one of command centers of U.S. Air Force.
400 kilometers, the distance between Tabriz and Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. Incirlik is a joint base for the U.S. and the Turkish army and is also used by Saudis’ air force. Spain’s Patriot Missiles are also located there. A stockpile of the U.S. nuclear weapons is in Incirlik, but their operational codes are in Pentagon.
1,130 kilometers, the distance between Zabol to U.S. drone control center in Islamabad. This center, in coordination with drone control headquarters in Nevada, targets Taliban centers or members of Al-Qaeda, and of course, gathers espionage intelligence from the countries of the region.
1,058 kilometers, the distance between Qaser-e Shirin to Dimona Radar Facility in Negev desert. This radar base is the most important U.S. radar center with 400-meter towers for monitoring ballistic missiles up to 2,400 kilometers, and its information is not given even to Israel.
999 to 1,100 kilometers, the distance between Qasr-e Shirin to three important cities of Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem. With 3 command centers, 22 bases in the north, 24 bases in the central part, 21 bases in the south, altogether 67 military bases are in possession of the U.S. That is why security and logistic military treaties between the two countries have made them two inseparable allies.
Can IRGC engage with these 8 bases?
With the presence of all these forces and military organizations around Iran’s land, unfortunately, we can realize the baselessness of IRGC’s commander’s remarks. But there is still one worse thing that Aziz Jafari is not aware of. A few years ago, when Iran’s nuclear facilities stopped working because of Stuxnet virus, Iran’s military and security commanders did not want to understand the scientific, technological gap between the third world countries including Iran with the first world countries and America –a gap which is almost forever and unsurpassable. And when last year, Iran’s refinery and petrochemical facilities were once more targeted from distance, not with artillery or missiles, but with computer virus, and we entered an unannounced war again, they didn’t understand that Iran’s power point is relying on people and national unity, not missile programs or ambitious dreams. And they didn’t understand that missile capability is good, but not prior to national unity.
Therefore, IRGC commanders, who threaten the U.S. and Israel at any opportunity to start a war so that they can achieve their secret goals under emergency conditions, must be reminded that if the next war breaks out, it will probably be with computer viruses and through disabling system of oil and gas, refinery, subway, water and power plants, telephone, and airports’ radars. It means that there won’t be any alert sirens or any announcement that the war with other countries has started.
Of course, if Iran’s facilities are attacked this time, IRGC commanders should not be surprised if Israeli’s aircraft enter Iran’s airspace from Afghanistan and Republic of Azerbaijan, and probably leave through Pakistan or Turkey airspace. Unfortunately, IRGC commanders are still living with memories of the 8-year war which took place 32 years ago. Meanwhile, today’s world has become a thousand times more complicated, and we need to think before speaking a thousand times more than before. Otherwise, Iranian military commanders’ speech will be more like famous and interesting speeches of Saeed Al-Sahhaf. At the time when Americans had captured half of Baghdad, he was swearing that no such thing had happened.
Unfortunately, the reality must be accepted that through sending Stuxnet virus, Iran’s facilities became the lab for testing the newest generation of destructive weapons, but Iranian officials acted as if nothing had happened. And instead of telling the truth to people, they announced a date for destroying Israel.
Translated Piece: Zaitoun Website
Opinions in this article reflect the writer’s point of view, not necessarily the view of The Arabain GCIS