Iran’s vision 2036

https://rasanah-iiis.org/english/?p=118

ByMohammed Alsulami

During the past two weeks, middle East region has witnessed the launching of three prospective strategic visions two of which are Arabic-Gulf-originated, while the third is Iranian. First, there is the Saudi vision (2030); which represents a quantum leap on economic, social and administrative scales. Saudi strategy also includes the ability of dispensing oil, reduction of unemployment and raising living standards of citizens. Emirates’ prospective vision (2030) as revealed by Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktum, which focuses on converting Dubai city into an intelligent city. The strategy contributes in improving transportation sector and individual productivity, reduce pollution, saving millions of wasted times in transportations. Emirates’ vision, forms a new leap along with many enormous developmental and economic projects in the state. The last one is the Iranian vision (2036) which has been revealed by General Rahem Safavi, the former leader of the revolutionary guards, and the current military consultant of Khamenei.
According to what has been published by the official Iranian authorities, this strategy depends on developing and establishing the current Iranian orientation. The new Iranian vision focuses on protecting the regime of Bashar Asad from falling and supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon to be in self-sufficiency status finically, militarily. That is meaning to fix the project of seizing the State of Lebanon with its different components and melting it with the thought of militia that imported from Iran, and represented by Hezbollah, and also support Iranian politics in Iraq and insuring that there is an Iraqi regime remains loyal toward Tehran. Iranian strategy also showed its anti-Islamic consolidation that established to fight terrorism as well as anti-trends toward Ankara and GCC countries.

There are three major indicators that can be concluded from the Iranian vision:

The first indicator represents Iran’s intention to continue its interference policy in the internal affairs of Arab Countries and its desire to keep tensions in the region, particularly between it and neighborhood. This indicator led us automatically to a couple of key points. The first point refers that the current US administration’s policy towards Iran, which is established on the idea of switching Tehran into a normal state through the diplomatic flexibility strategic which led Obama administration betting on the nuclear deal, which was not accurate enough but extremely optimistic. The second point is that the (5+1) countries have drift much behind the American vision. Therefore, the objectives of the nuclear deal could not be achieved, and there are not any concrete indicators to be fulfilled; this if we believe that the nuclear deal objective is the announced one.
The second indicator refers to Iran’s continuation in plotting the sectarian conflicts in the region, and the attempt to insure of flaming the fire of sectarian conflicts for the longest time and the largest possible area. That appears by Iran’s 2036 strategy which focused on Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, which are all areas of sectarian conflicts plotted by the Iranian side and there are many and clear evidences.

The third indicator refers to the continuation of the Iranian regime in the escape-forward strategy and to busy the inside from its demands and entitlements by creating animosity with the outside to suppress any voice inside calling for a reform or religious, ethnic, political, social or livelihood rights. In other words, in attempts taken to portray Iran in the era of Rouhani as something different from Iran during the Ahmadinejad’s era. However, facts confirm that the current Iranian government is still proceeding on the policy of sectarian revolution exporting that consequent ignorance of inside and its entitlements and demands to establish and support the militias, armed groups and spy cells and tampering with the social, political and religious structure of the countries in the region to serve the Iranian objective. That is also mean that the celebrations in the cities of Iran streets and the optimistic spirit that dominate Iranian youth due to nuclear deal are now beginning to vanish because of not just nothing changing on the ground but they become sure there nothing will be changed in the next twenty years under the strategy that have been revealed recently.

In conclusion, what is clear of Iran’s vision suggests that the Iranian people realize that there worries and aspirations are not taken in consideration of the next twenty years strategy, and the focus will be to inflame the outside not to satisfy the inside. The Jurist Leadership regime will continue to bet on time to remain in power for a long age through distracting the inside by plotting political conflicts, and the outside with the nuclear folder, ballistic weapons and finally the 2036 strategy and we do not know what the next Iran’s plan is?

We really feel sympathetic with the Iranian friendly people who watch the neighbor countries, some which have less than Iran’s wealth of sources but witnessing development in different fields unlike their country. Iranian know that almost 50% of the people in Iran live below poverty line, where drugs damaging a large proportion of young people, men and women. Illiteracy increasing and the middle of ages declining because of deterioration of health services. The rate of inflation and unemployment and all of this happening without any move from the regime and the worse that this strategy provokes the street and that means the people does not see a light in the end of this dark tunnel.

Mohammed Alsulami
Mohammed Alsulami
Head of Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies