A week is a lifetime in politics, said Harold Wilson, former British premier. On June 13, a popular presidential candidate survives an assassination attempt. Within days, his rival quits the race to quell an ensuing rebellion, putting his weight behind his top lieutenant who gains widespread acceptance and raises extensive funds too. Unless there are more surprises in store, the stage for the US presidential election is all set.
Donald John Trump will now face Kamala Devi Harris instead of Joe Robinette Biden. The current US vice president will become the official nominee of the Democratic Party on August 19, coronated to the slot more or less similar to what President Gerald Ford had predicted in 1989. She may announce her running mate then as well. James David Vance, a first-time senator from Ohio, is the Republican candidate for the vice president. Trump, who entered the Milwaukee convention hall with James Brown’s song, “It’s a man’s, man’s, man’s world,” becomes the only presidential candidate to face two female rivals.
Team Trump
Despite surviving an assassination attempt, the Republican nominee has been relentlessly propagating invective instead of focusing on issues. Trump was hailed across the spectrum for his composure and defiance moments after the attack. However, talk of lowering the political temperature and fostering unity hardly lasted 48 hours as conspiracy theorists and famous far-right talking heads started baselessly accusing President Biden of plotting the failed attack. His 36-year-old running mate was amongst the early abettors. The speeches at the convention added more fuel to the fire. The RNC convention exhibited Trump’s total command over the party, with top rivals Nikky Haley and Ron DeSantis also falling in line. Yet, he humiliated them by picking a dark horse as his number two.
Though a Yale graduate with Silicon Valley experience and deeply conservative views was picked for the ticket to attract funds and younger voters alike, he has so far proven to be the least popular running mate in nine decades besides being the least experienced. The 36-year-old senator does not bring along a swing state to the RNC fold as Ohio is not one. His extreme views on support for the Russia-Ukraine war or the abortion ban do not eclipse Trump’s presence. The former president, who has no penchant for consultation and delegation, would likely call the shots if elected. Vance can project himself as Trump’s political successor in the MAGA movement but may not even have the autonomy Mike Pence had.
The Harris Campaign
Being the primary benefactor of her mentor’s ailing health and age, Harris owes nearly everything about her presidential ticket to President Biden for endorsing her for the presidential nomination without challenging primaries. Had he not accorded the favor to curb further infighting, the former attorney general, who is the daughter of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father, would have to earn the ticket in a three-day open convention in Chicago. She did not have to debate policy matters with other bright challengers in the DNC. Long prior to Hillary Clinton, Democrat Geraldine Ferraro became the first woman to be nominated as vice president with Walter Mondale. Republican rival Ronald Reagan won the 1984 presidential election. In 2016, Hillary Clinton earned more votes than Trump but lost the Electoral College.
Desperate for unity and deterred by the prospect of a second Trump presidency, the Democrats took little time to accept Harris as their nominee. Within a short time of of Biden’s voluntary withdrawal from the race, Harris earned enough endorsements from Democratic delegates to become the party’s official presidential nominee . Her pick for vice president can further add to the momentum. Keeping her rival and the media guessing, she is in no hurry to decide. However, Pennsylvania Governor Joshua David Shapiro and Senator Mark Edward Kelly are top contenders. Shapiro is also a former attorney general (like Kamala) who brings along a swing state while Kelly is a former NASA astronaut and retired US Navy captain from Arizona. The party’s left-wing senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are lobbying for a pro-union ticket mate. The vice president’s choice will likely be a white male from the armed forces or the Rust Belt states.
Since the president’s exit from the contest, Harris has mustered a two-point lead in the polls. The DNC campaign is focusing on younger voters, the working class and women of color to make up for the shortfall due to Muslim and Arab voters’ boycott over US policy toward Israel.
The 2024 Agenda
In political speak, both election campaigns center on four issues: inflation, immigration, abortion, and race. Foreign and security policy do not form the core of the agenda. Though aid to Ukraine is a contentious issue, voting patterns are not generally based on policy towards Russia, Iran or Israel. The public is more concerned about an influx of refugees and asylum seekers from the southern border, an issue the Republicans have inflated to their advantage which the Democrats have not really paid sufficient heed to. The soaring cost of living and massive taxes have eclipsed the Biden administration’s success in creating record jobs and bettering the economy. The perception in the street is to the contrary, much to the benefit of the MAGA populists. The Supreme Court’s controversial ruling of overturning the decision in the Roe v. Wade case makes abortion illegal. Though Republicans claim that life begins at conception, the Trump campaign has not explicitly addressed the issue. JD Vance, however, seeks a nationwide ban on abortion, which he has clearly stated in contrast to Trump’s ambiguous stance. Democrats are pressing against the abortion ban to woo young voters while worsening the Republicans’ dilemma. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 is another albatross around Trump’s neck. As much as the DNC is challenging him on the far-right agenda, his message has been mixed. The Republican nominee recently tried to express ignorance about the radical manifesto, but earlier, he lauded the Heritage Foundation for its impressive work. Trump’s ambiguous stance on the abortion ban, as well as Project 2025, does not move the needle for him. The former issue rather than the latter is more critical for the for electorate, especially women and the undecided.
Despite her stint in the Senate and three-and-a-half years as vice president, Harris has not achieved significant diplomatic breakthroughs. Reading from a teleprompter, she delivered numerous keynote speeches and chaired conferences while filling in for the president when he prioritized other work. Given her mediocre knowledge of foreign affairs and oratory, she would need a vice president experienced in geopolitics and geoeconomics. Alongside her yet-to-be-decided running mate, President Biden’s geopolitical prowess might help her campaign, which, in case of victory, would require a vice president with experience in international affairs.
The MAGA team is set to a new reality: the world is not the same as 2016. If Trump wins again, his foreign and security policy decisions will be less of a surprise. Europe, Russia, China and Iran have their options pretty much worked out. Separating Trump’s electoral rhetoric from his policy pursuit is challenging. He sees his unpredictability as a strength, nonetheless.
Last but not least, Trump is the older candidate in the race. His age is becoming increasingly apparent. Trump’s vigor, as well as his political firepower, are declining. He will be subject to harsh criticism; however, he still has the means to attack his opponent more forcefully. This time around, he made a breakthrough in Silicon Valley with mega-donors such as Elon Musk pledging $45 million per month to his campaign. With Kamala on the Democratic ticket now, not everyone is rushing to Vegas to bet the house for Trump and Vance. Hollywood is firmly funding Democrats as is the arms industry.
Over the past eight years, the world has seen that the US political, judicial and economic systems are broken. It can buy some time by inflating the China threat and investing in its military industrial complex. Nevertheless, it is a receding superpower, which needs to strengthen itself from within. For those who are wondering if Trump or Harris are ready to take on the gargantuan challenge of leading the United States, the election of 2024 is a referendum on the existence of the republic.
Opinions in this article reflect the writer’s point of view, not necessarily the view of Rasanah
