Bangladesh is experiencing a historic moment with Sheikh Hasina’s recent departure to New Delhi after widespread protests and violence across the country. Amid the turmoil and rising anti-incumbency sentiment, the official residence of Sheikh Hasina was raided and looted. These developments have significant implications for the region’s political landscape and stability. Since its independence in 1971, Bangladesh has grappled with instability marked by political violence, corruption and allegations of electoral fraud, often resulting in the banning and repression of major political parties. Despite a return to democracy in 1991, political polarization and authoritarian tendencies along with opposition parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotting the last three elections, led to heightened concerns about democratic backsliding leading to recurring protests. The ongoing crisis has created a political vacuum in Bangladesh, where the rivalry between Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League and the BNP often dominated the domestic political landscape.
The recent protests in Bangladesh were triggered by the longstanding dissatisfaction with a quota system that reserved 56% of government positions for various groups, including 30% for the descendants of the 1971 War of Independence fighters. This quota system created barriers for the country’s large young population, comprising nearly 28% of the total population, many of them seeking civil service roles amid high unemployment, despite the country’s much-lauded economic growth. Lower middle-income countries experiencing a youth bulge often face significant challenges, such as high unemployment and a mismatch between available jobs and the aspirations of young people. When economic growth disproportionately benefits only the upper echelons of society, these conditions can heighten the risk of social unrest and grassroots revolutions as seen in the case of Bangladesh.
Criticism also arose that many of the reserved positions went to supporters of the Awami League. Although the quota system was abolished by the government in 2018 following widespread protests, the High Court declared the abolition illegal in June 2024, prompting new protests primarily by university and college students. In July 2024, additional protests erupted at public universities over pension reforms that could reduce income. The situation escalated after Prime Minister Hasina’s inflammatory speech, which labeled protesters as “razakaar,” a term for pro-Pakistan collaborators from the 1971 war. This speech incited violent crackdowns by the student wing of the Awami League — the Bangladesh Chhatra League, the police and the Rapid Action Battalion, resulting in around 266 deaths, including students and children. While the protests initially erupted over the quota system verdict, they quickly evolved into a broader platform for longstanding grievances against Sheikh Hasina’s government, including economic inequality, democratic erosion, and suppression of dissent.
The recent protests were preceded by the “India Out” movement which blended anti-India and anti-incumbency sentiments to challenge Sheikh Hasina’s government, drawing BNP supporters, disillusioned citizens and Jamaat-e-Islami members. Some opposition groups view the minority Hindu population as supporters of India, whom they believe to back Sheikh Hasina’s government. Following Sheikh Hasina’s ousting, there have been several reports of attacks on Hindu temples and businesses in Bangladesh, with concerns for the safety of the Hindu minority. Despite this, several Muslim groups and students are coming together to protect Hindu temples. The interim government has also urgently called for an end to the violence against minorities. Civil society groups, student organizations, the military and opposition parties have all become key players in the unfolding political crisis in Bangladesh. Amid the unrest, top officials have resigned, including the chief justice and the central bank governor.
Since Bangladesh’s independence, the army has significantly influenced the country’s politics, with multiple coups and periods of military rule. Soon after the departure of Sheikh Hasina, amid instability, the military, led by General Waker-uz-Zaman, took control, but student leaders remained opposed to military rule. Upon the protestors’ demands, the interim government is now led by economist and Nobel Laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus who promised to stabilize the country and ensure economic growth and reforms. Referring to the recent developments, Yunus described the day as a celebration, calling it a “second liberation.” During her tenure, Sheikh Hasina clashed with Yunus, accusing him of corruption, money laundering and exploiting the poor through his renowned Grameen Bank — allegations he has consistently denied. Despite facing over 200 charges over the years, Yunus maintained significant popularity in Bangladesh, which was frequently perceived as a challenge to Hasina’s government.
After resigning and fleeing Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina accused the United States of influencing her ouster due to her refusal to cede Saint Martin’s Island, which she claimed was a key factor in her loss of power. In a message to her party members, Hasina suggested she could have retained her position had she surrendered the island and the Bay of Bengal to the United States — a claim dismissed by the BNP and the opposition.
The turmoil in Bangladesh, when considered alongside the situations in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, complicates the regional stability of South Asia. Neighbors like India, which had a strong partnership with Sheikh Hasina’s government, now face uncertainty given the sudden shift in dynamics. Bangladesh could also emerge as a center for geopolitical competition and all major regional and global powers will likely take measures to protect their interests and increase their leverage in the country, including India, Pakistan, China, and the United States.
India shares a 4,096 kilometer border with Bangladesh and has always had concerns regarding infiltration from Bangladesh, which is also a highly politicized issue in India. Amid the ongoing turmoil, India is now concerned about a potential influx of refugees and recent reports reveal that Border Security Forces have been preventing people from entering the country. India’s perceived “big brother” status and indirect influence over Bangladesh may now be challenged, as significant segments of public opinion view India as a supporter of Sheikh Hasina. Amid ongoing domestic instability, all Indian visa application centers have been closed, and the Indian government has advised all Indian students to return.
Despite her authoritarian tendencies, Sheikh Hasina has been instrumental in reducing poverty in the country in the last two decades. Poverty in Bangladesh declined from 11.8% in 2010 to 5.0% in 2022. However, the economy recently encountered significant challenges due to COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, which led to inflation rising to 10%. In the current circumstances, it remains to be seen how the country will navigate these challenges, but restoring stability will be crucial for regaining investor confidence and attracting foreign investment which remains critical for Bangladesh’s economy.
