Since November 2023, the Houthis have attacked some 70 merchant ships in the Red Sea, sinking four of them. Besides kidnapping their crew and detaining a few ships, the Yemeni group killed at least seven seafarers, all in the name of Palestine. The Houthi attacks not only reveal the use of more advanced weaponry but also an increasingly aggressive stance on behalf of Iran. Prima facie, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi asserts that the attacks are against shipping companies transporting goods to Israel. The freshly sunken ship – MV Magic Seas – docked in Israel in December 2023, while an Eternity C’s sister ship operator visited Haifa in June. When the company owning Eternity C sought UK and US assistance, it was told that no naval assets were in the region. The US-UK Joint Maritime Information Center seems reduced to a listening post only.
In July, Eternity C and MV Magic Seas were attacked and sunk by Houthi militants who circled the vessels with manned dinghies and rammed with multiple unmanned explosive-ridden small boats in conjunction with rocket-propelled grenades and armed drones. The video of the attack, filmed professionally using multiple drone cameras, laden with propaganda music and messaging, highlights the efficacy of the operation.
Though lethal assaults have severely undermined maritime traffic, the vessels still sailing through the waterway are broadcasting messages in desperation, ranging from “all Muslim crew,” “all Chinese crew” to “no link to Israel” on public tracking systems. However, since March last year, the group has spared neither Chinese nor Russian ships. Eternity C was sailing empty to the neighboring Saudi port of Jeddah.
The Houthi attacks, fatal for the crew and the vessels, are aimed at deterring maritime traffic to and from the strategically vital Bab al-Mandab Strait (the Gate of Grief) — connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Since agreeing to a truce with Washington in early May, US naval vessels have not been involved in Red Sea security. After the twin sinking, The Wall Street Journal quoted a Defense Department spokeswoman saying that the recent attacks have not changed the US “force posture” as the ceasefire is intact. In effect, the truce has been effective in curtailing Houthi attacks. Still, since the Israel-Iran 12 day war and US aerial attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, it seems that Houthi resurgence in targeting vessels is in line with Iranian calculations to gain much-needed leverage as talks of a restart in nuclear talks re-emerge. It would be fair to say that the future of maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab is closely tied to the outcomes of the nuclear talks — a breakthrough will halt the Houthi belligerency, with the Iranians interested in preserving any potential deal, which would be intrinsically linked to the survival of the Iranian establishment.
After the weakening of Hezbollah, the Houthi group, inspired, trained and partly armed by Iran, is the most lethal non-state armed actor. Armed with ballistic missiles, helicopters and uncrewed sea vessels and drones, it is capable of engaging in coordinated multidomain warfare while surviving US, UK and Israeli bombing runs multiple times. It is also important to note that some international powers are involved in providing technology and satellite imagery to the Houthis, greatly aiding the group’s potency and belligerence. The gateway for 12% of global maritime traffic is 29 kilometers at its narrowest point. The Yemeni group tried to intercept this chokepoint in 2016 by launching four attacks against military and civilian traffic, but was effectively repelled by the US Navy. However, now the Houthis are launching a more vigorous maritime campaign.
Preempting looming dangers, leading shipping giants are rerouting through the southern tip of Africa while partly sailing across the Red Sea in the absence of naval escorts.
Before the Houthi maritime campaign, 86% of cargo containers and petroleum tanker traffic between Asia and Europe used to sail through the Red Sea. Egypt, which earns significant revenue from shipping in the Suez Canal, registers over a 70% decline. Shipping companies, meanwhile, are paying more for fuel costs as a vessel takes 14 more days to reach the destination. The voyage through the Bab al-Mandab incurs higher insurance fees, particularly during periods of tariff uncertainty, which disrupts commerce.
The Houthis, meanwhile, appear to be focusing more on piracy operations rather than ballistic missile attacks on Israel due to the latter’s futility. Their commercial blackmail has not yielded them any rewards and in fact has resulted in multiple missile strikes by the United States, the UK and Israel. How long President Donald Trump refrains from greater engagement is anybody’s guess. Houthi disruptions are testing the patience of Japan, China, France, the UK and Germany, which have military bases on leased land across Yemen in Djibouti. There are no signs yet if their warship will escort commercial vessels through the waters of northern Yemen.
Unlike Russia, China is one of the top stakeholders in global commerce, which would have to set aside its neutrality and step forward for freedom of navigation. Supply chain disruptions are a nightmare neither Beijing nor Brussels can afford. China will not abandon its neutrality on the Israel-Palestine conflict, barring its verbal solidarity with Gazans. Houthi banditry is exposing the limits of China, the Middle East’s biggest trade partner, compelling the Red Sea rim states and other trading nations to rely on Western military muscle.
Already, ships and tankers from Europe and North Africa mostly avoid the Suez Canal while en route to Jeddah and other Saudi ports. Though its patience is thinning, Riyadh may remain opposed to military confrontation with the Houthis to restore normalcy in the Red Sea.
If diplomacy proves to be a smokescreen, what military options can turn the tables on the Houthis? Geography and tribal empathy are the group’s insurance policies. Aerial attacks can deliver only so much, and their outcomes have plateaued. Hence, the next phase of military operations could involve the employment of aerial attacks along with military support for on-the-ground anti-Houthi forces, something that is being deliberated in Western capitals and could prove to be an effective option in the future to blunt the Houthi threat significantly.
