Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan in August 2024 had several important consequences for regional geopolitics, Russia-Azerbaijan relations, and the broader dynamics in the South Caucasus. The first objective was to strengthen bilateral relations with Baku. Russia reaffirmed its commitment to deepening cooperation in various sectors, particularly in energy and transport. Having grown in geopolitical importance, Azerbaijan has been careful to balance relations between Russia, Turkey, and the West. Today, Azerbaijan has emerged as a pivotal regional player.
The visit occurred amid deteriorating relations between Russia and Armenia, especially after Armenia shifted its alignment toward the West following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Despite this negative trend, Russia remains a military power supporting Armenia’s military efforts. Russia offered to continue mediating peace efforts between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but with less leverage due to its weakened regional influence, especially as Azerbaijan made significant gains in 2023 during the Nagorno-Karabakh offensive.
The visit resulted in the signing of agreements aimed at bolstering economic and trade cooperation, particularly in energy. Russia is keen to maintain influence in Azerbaijan’s energy sector, especially as Baku expands its role in supplying energy to European markets. Moscow’s interest in this sphere is crucial as it navigates sanctions and seeks to use the Caspian Sea route to evade sanctions. This explains why Moscow is focusing on the implementation of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) with India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Central Asia.
Moreover, the visit also signaled a potential realignment in regional politics. With Azerbaijan showing interest in joining organizations like BRICS and aligning more with non-Western power blocs, Russia seeks to reinforce its regional alliances. This is especially relevant as Western and Turkish influence grows, while Russia deals with challenges in its war with Ukraine and a shifting balance of power in the Caucasus. There is also a rise in tensions between Russia on the one hand, and Iran and Armenia on the other hand. Indeed, the comments by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the Zangezur Corridor provoked tensions with both Armenia and Iran. The Zangezur Corridor is a threat to regional transportation and geopolitical dynamics, according to Yerevan’s and Tehran’s points of view. Iran’s criticism of the Zangezur Corridor was downplayed after the summoning of the Russian ambassador to Tehran.
In summary, Putin’s visit reinforced the importance of Azerbaijan in Russia’s regional strategy, particularly amid shifting geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus. However, it also highlighted Moscow’s waning influence because of the Russia-Ukraine war, particularly in mediating regional conflicts like the one between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The new challenge for Russia is to develop positive relations, at the same time, with Azerbaijan and Iran on regional issues while the two countries disagree on the future of the Caucasus.
The Russian president decided to organize another important regional visit in September 2024. His visit to Mongolia had several important consequences, both domestically for Mongolia and internationally, in terms of its legal and diplomatic standing. The Russian president decided to go to Mongolia even though, as a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), it was legally obligated to arrest him. Indeed, Putin is under an arrest warrant from the ICC for alleged war crimes related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, particularly the deportation of children from Ukraine. However, the Mongolian government chose not to comply, citing its critical economic ties with Russia, particularly in energy supplies. Mongolia now faces criticism from human rights organizations and the possibility of being referred to the ICC’s Assembly of States Parties for non-compliance. While there are no immediate punitive consequences, such a referral could harm Mongolia’s international reputation.
Mongolia heavily relies on Russia for vital imports, especially petroleum, with around 95% of its fuel coming from Russia and more than 20% of its electricity. This economic dependence was a significant factor in its decision to host Putin despite the ICC warrant. Any hostile action against Putin could have led to Russian retaliation, severely impacting Mongolia’s energy security. Mongolia finds itself caught between maintaining vital economic relations with Russia and managing its international obligations under the ICC. This highlights the delicate diplomatic position of smaller countries reliant on powerful neighbors.
For Russia, the visit reinforced Moscow’s influence in the region and demonstrated Putin’s ability to travel despite the ICC warrant. It also showed Mongolia’s willingness to maintain close ties with Russia, even at the cost of straining relations with the West. The visit can be seen as part of Russia’s broader strategy to deepen relationships with neighboring countries and assert its regional power despite international isolation efforts, especially from Western nations and institutions. This visit also conveyed to China that Russia is still an important regional power despite its war in Ukraine.
Overall, the visit underscored the challenges faced by countries like Mongolia, which must navigate complex geopolitical realities while trying to uphold international legal commitments. It also demonstrated Russia’s ongoing efforts to undermine the legitimacy of international institutions like the ICC and send a message to Western powers trying to develop their influence in Russia’s neighborhoods, such as France. Moscow has a negative perception of Mongolia’s aspirations of developing an independent foreign policy, favoring the advance of Western interests in Russia’s neighborhood. Therefore, this Russian presidential visit represented an assertion of Moscow’s clout given the attempts of Western powers to increase their influence and interests in Mongolia.
