The Arabian Gulf Centre for Iranian Studies issues the Strategic Report 2017. The report provides an analysis for the most prominent events on Iranian Affairs, and further it offers the most possible scenarios in the upcoming period.
The report has three main sections: Internal, Arab, and International.
The Internal Affairs handles five files including the Political File which presents the 2017 Iranian elections and how President Hassan Rouhani did not fulfil his promises. Also, the consequent reformist criticisms and the dispute with the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are presented. Furthermore, the file handles the recent Iranian protests in 2017, in which the Iranian people demanded a secular system in exchange of the dictatorship that rules the country.
The Security File handles the ISIS-Iran relationship, in addition to the security situations in Ahwaz, Baluchistan, Sistan, and Kurdistan. Also, the recent earthquakes that hit Eastern Iran are explored along with the regime’s negligence of the victims. This was a direct reason for the recent protests, resulting in the Parliament rejecting the 2018 Budget.
The Military File handles the relationship between the IRGC and the Army, further President Rouhani’s position towards this Military Institution is analysed, especially after an increase in the Défense Budget at the expense of the people’s needs.
The Economic File analyses the economic situation during and after the Iranian protests 2017-2018 as well as the future implications. The Social File handles the family, health, education and environment situation as well as aspects of poverty, unemployment, drug addiction and divorce.
The Arab Affairs File analyses Iran-Gulf Relations oscillating between regional variables and international transformations such as an improvement in US-Saudi relations, Turkish-Saudi rapprochement and critical files such as Syria, Yemen and Iraq. As well as, the Iranian backed Houthi’s targeting of Riyadh with ballistic missiles and the formation of terrorist cells to hit oil construction sites in Bahrain, and the smuggling of the Abdali Cell into Iran. Also, the report handles the Yemeni File and the Iranian role in supporting the Houthis, further the link between the break up in relations with Saleh and his assassination are analysed. The Arab Affair File presents an overview of the Iranian role in Syria and the dispute of interests in the Iran-Russia relationship, the Turkish Strategy of “Zero-Problems” and the Israeli raids on Syrian territories. For Iraq, the file discusses the restoration of the nation state, the risk of Iranian dominance and PMF affiliations.
The International Affair File handles US-Iran relations after a year of Trump’s presidency and Iranian reaction to US polices, in addition to Russia-Iran relations in the military and economic fields, as well as their coalition against the West.