The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) issued its monthly Iran Case File for July 2021, providing readers in general and researchers in particular with an in-depth analysis and comprehensive review of Iran’s affairs in July. The file is divided into three main parts: Internal Affairs, Arab Affairs and International Affairs.
With regard to internal developments, the Iranian presidential election represented the most prominent event during July, as it opened the discussion about all aspects of the crisis that Iran is going through both internally and externally.
At the ideological level, the report touches on the possibility of the Iranian government establishing a Shiite militia in Afghanistan similar to the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and the armed Shiite groups in Syria and Lebanon.
At the political level, the report points out that Ebrahim Raisi’s victory in the presidential election represented a new opportunity for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to raise one of his close associates to the presidency as well as in the judiciary with the appointment of Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i.
At the economic level, the report deals with the economic importance of the Ahwaz region, which is the main lifeline of the Iranian economy, as the region is witnessing escalating protests against the backdrop of water shortages, which invoked a violent response from the Iranian government and led to support protests in a number of Iranian provinces.
At the military level, the report draws attention to the naval forces’ attempts to raise their defensive and combat capabilities, but it seems that economic difficulties have posed an obstacle to achieving their plans.
With regard to Arab affairs and at the level of Iranian-Gulf interactions, the report deals with Moscow’s announcement of its intention to present an updated version of its concept of collective security in the Arab Gulf region, which includes a discussion regarding Western and regional concerns about Iran, including its missile program and regional problems.
Regarding the situation in Yemen, the report reviews the Houthis’ attempts to thwart all international and UN efforts to bring peace to Yemen. With regard to Iranian-Iraqi interactions, the report also reviews Iranian militia escalation against US targets.
In the context of the Iranian presence in Syria, the report refers to the Israeli strikes on militia sites, which were intercepted this time by Syrian-Russian defenses.
At the international level, the report examines Iran’s request to European mediators to postpone the indirect negotiations in Vienna with the United States until the formation of the new Iranian government.