The Iran Case File (ICF) for September and October 2025, published by the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah), provides an in-depth assessment of Iran’s domestic and international affairs. The ICF is structured into three sections: internal developments, Iran-Arab interactions and Iran’s international relations.
The domestic scene witnessedsignificant developments during September and October across the political, economic, military, social and ideological spheres. Politically, the Expediency Discernment Council approved Tehran’s accession to the Convention on Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), sparking heated debate among rival political currents. Militarily, satellite imagery revealed an unannounced missile test conducted by Iran at a base, apparently in preparation for anticipated Israeli attacks. Socially, Iranians faced another shock with the re-imposition of UN sanctions, expected to negatively impact all aspects of daily life. Ideologically, religion played a prominent role in Iraq’s electoral scene, with some voices calling for a boycott of the elections and others urging participation, while fatwas were employed as tools in political battles.
On the Iran-Arab level, the two months were marked by notable developments. In Iraq, a Sunni parliamentary candidate was assassinated and an attempt on the life of his fellow Sunni candidate took place. In Syria, the visit of President Ahmed al-Sharaa to Moscow emerged as a pivotal event in reshaping alliances within the Syrian file, reflecting shifting balances of power between Russia and Iran. With regard to Yemen, the ICF discusses Houthi threats to international navigation in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, which escalated sharply. This was accompanied by a severe deterioration in humanitarian and human rights conditions in areas under Houthi control.
In the sphere of Iran’s global relations, the country’s diplomatic efforts failed to achieve a breakthrough that could revive the remains of the 2015 nuclear agreement, with the E3 restoring UN sanctions under the snapback mechanism.
Click here to access the PDF version of the ICF.
