Beijing Summit 2026: Trump and Xi Seek Stability on Trade, AI, Taiwan and Iran

https://rasanah-iiis.org/english/?p=14356

ByClément Therme

US President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping encompassed one of the broadest and most consequential agendas in the recent history of US-China relations. From May 14 to May 15, 2026, the summit addressed a wide range of issues, including trade imbalances, artificial intelligence (AI), export controls, rare earth minerals, Taiwan and the ongoing Iran war. 

The summit marked the first visit by a US president to China in nearly a decade following weeks of escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping described the meeting as the beginning of a new phase in US-China relations based on stable ties and managed competition during talks with Trump. The two leaders addressed several sensitive issues, including Taiwan, with Xi warning that the island remains “the most important issue in China-US relations” and could create a “very dangerous situation” if mishandled. 

The ongoing Iran war and the resulting global energy crisis also cast a shadow over the summit. According to Chinese state media, the two leaders discussed developments in the Middle East, including concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for global oil trade. Trump was reportedly expected to encourage Beijing to use its influence over Iran to support the reopening of the strait and help stabilize energy markets.

It is hardly surprising that the Iran war occupied a central place in the discussions between the two leaders, with Trump reportedly urging Xi to reduce China’s support for Tehran, particularly regarding dual-use technologies, electronics and components that Washington believes could contribute to Iran’s military-industrial capabilities. The US State Department also imposed sanctions on four Chinese entities on May 8, 2026 for allegedly “providing satellite imagery enabling Iranian military strikes against US forces in the Middle East,” prompting a strong condemnation from China’s Foreign Ministry. At the same time, US officials signaled that the White House plans to renew scrutiny of Beijing’s broader strategic alignment with both Iran and Russia.

On the diplomatic front, progress in ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran is closely tied to Beijing’s willingness to facilitate diplomatic channels and encourage restraint. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi  participated in the BRICS foreign ministers’ summit in New Delhi during Trump’s visit, while regional actors such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Türkiye and Egypt continue to play important backchannel roles. China increasingly appears to position itself as a discreet but indispensable diplomatic intermediary.

For Xi, the stakes are equally high. China’s economic stability depends heavily on uninterrupted energy flows from the Gulf, making maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz a strategic priority. Beijing is therefore encouraging de-escalation and opposing any renewed military escalation that could further destabilize global energy markets, while simultaneously proposing a Chinese mediation initiative to help resolve the conflict through diplomatic channels. 

Trump was scheduled to visit Beijing earlier but the outbreak of the Iran conflict led to a delay. The war in the Middle East has disrupted global energy markets, while the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most volatile strategic chokepoints in the world. China, as Iran’s largest oil customer, possesses significant leverage over any potential de-escalation process.

Bilateral relations have deteriorated in recent years because of US export controls targeting advanced semiconductors and AI technologies, Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports and mutual accusations regarding sanctions evasion and strategic coercion. 

On the economic front, Xi also met several prominent US business leaders who accompanied Trump to Beijing. Among them were Apple CEO Tim Cook and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. Trump stated that the executives had traveled to China both to strengthen commercial ties and to demonstrate respect for the importance of the bilateral relationship. China will renew  beef export licenses for US companies  as a goodwill gesture for Trump’s visit.

 Trump pushed for measures aimed at reducing the persistent US trade deficit and expanding access for US companies to Chinese markets. The discussions also included an extension of the existing truce on critical minerals, particularly rare earth elements essential for electronics, defense industries, electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies. China’s near-monopoly across several segments of the rare earth supply chain continues to provide Beijing with substantial negotiating leverage.

AI and export controls represent another major source of friction. Washington seeks to preserve restrictions on advanced chips, semiconductor equipment and AI-related technologies in the name of national security and technological superiority. At the same time, US officials appear increasingly concerned about the risks of uncontrolled AI competition between the two powers. One objective of the summit could therefore have been the establishment of limited communication mechanisms designed to prevent accidental escalation or miscalculation in the AI domain. Beijing, however, views US export controls as part of a broader strategy aimed at containing China’s technological rise and preserving US dominance in critical sectors.

European governments observed the summit with a mixture of hope and concern. The EU has a strong interest in any outcome capable of stabilizing global energy prices and easing supply-chain disruptions linked to the Iran war. A reduction in tensions in the Middle East, facilitated by limited US-China coordination, would help reduce inflationary pressures that continue to weigh on European economies. From Brussels’ perspective, the summit also illustrates the increasingly transactional nature of international politics. European officials hope that Washington and Beijing can reach pragmatic understandings on trade and critical minerals that prevent further fragmentation of global markets. At the same time, there is significant concern within the EU that a bilateral US-China accommodation could marginalize European interests, particularly regarding technology standards, AI governance, industrial policy and access to strategic raw materials. In response, the EU has accelerated its own de-risking policies, notably through initiatives such as the ReSourceEU Action Plan, aimed at reducing excessive dependence on China.

Many European policymakers increasingly fear the emergence of a bipolar international order in which Washington and Beijing effectively dictate the rules of global economic and technological competition. While European capitals generally welcome any stabilization in US-China relations that supports multilateral diplomacy on issues such as non-proliferation and climate change, they also remain wary of becoming strategically squeezed between the two superpowers. From the EU perspective, the most realistic outcome of the summit would involve modest progress on Iran diplomacy, a temporary extension of trade-related truces and the continuation of long-term strategic competition in advanced technologies. European governments increasingly recognize that instability in the Indo-Pacific would carry major economic and security consequences for Europe, particularly because of global semiconductor dependence and maritime trade routes. Any perception of declining US commitment to Taiwan could embolden Beijing and alter strategic calculations across the region.

Expectations for the summit nevertheless remain cautious. Trump entered the talks seeking tangible political victories, particularly regarding Iran and trade, that he can present domestically as evidence of effective leadership. Xi, meanwhile, approached the negotiations from a relatively stronger position, benefiting from US strategic distractions in the Middle East while emphasizing stability and continuity. The Trump-Xi summit therefore illustrates a defining feature of contemporary great-power diplomacy: deep strategic competition combined with unavoidable interdependence. 

Clément Therme
Clément Therme
a non-resident fellow at Rasanah-IIIS and a Research Associate at the School for Advanced Studies in Social Sciences (EHESS) in Paris.