In an article titled “How Iran Sees the Path to Peace” published by Foreign Affairs on December 2, 2024, Iran’s Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif presented the Pezeshkian government’s vision for regional security and stability. This vision includes Iran’s views on cooperation, regional integration, the challenges ahead, the differences between the United States and the West — particularly regarding the nuclear deal — and a new approach to addressing the Palestinian question. Zarif’s insights reflect a more sophisticated and evolved perspective than Iran’s traditional regional stance. Zarif has put forward a vision that is likely the outcome of internal interactions between Iran’s two political currents. In addition, this vision is also the outcome of the current conflict and the challenges facing the Iranian regional project, which the “hardliner” current of the ruling establishment continues to pursue. This vision has been stated in the context of Trump’s upcoming inauguration in January, 2025, who is expected to adopt an uncompromising position regarding the challenges posed by Iran. This vision is consistent, in some aspects, with the Saudi vision of regional stability, reflecting consensus on the region’s future.
Background and Context
Zarif’s vision is significant due to the current context and the critical moment that Iran is facing both internally and externally. Internally, the situation has dramatically worsened because of the economic challenges and difficult living conditions that Iranians are experiencing amid sanctions, pressures, and isolation from the outside world. This complexity puts considerable pressure on the ruling establishment, adversely impacting its overall political structure that has witnessed the gradual erosion of its effectiveness and efficiency over the course of more than four decades. The government is now facing a highly challenging transitional phase, particularly following Khamenei’s tenure. His succession has become uncertain and extremely complicated, especially after Raisi’s death.
At the regional level, Zarif’s vision emerges amid uncertainty regarding Iran’s regional project, which has seen substantial investments over the past four decades. Iran is on the brink of losing some of its regional influence, particularly among proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and various armed factions in Syria. The campaign targeting this project and Iranian influence may also diminish the effectiveness of the IRGC in conducting operations beyond Iran’s borders, including activities involving Iraqi militias and the Houthi group in Yemen. Consequently, Iran’s borders and sovereignty have become more vulnerable than ever. This suggests that the strategy of forward defense has not succeeded in protecting Iran’s borders and sovereignty. While Iran has attempted to maintain a balance by launching counterstrikes against Israel and indirect actions against the United States, it cannot sustain a long-term escalation due to imbalances in military and economic power, as well as the influence of international alliances.
At the international level, Trump’s return to power and his Cabinet nominations signal hostile intentions toward Iran and perhaps a more coordinated policy than the strategy of maximum pressure pursued by Trump during his first term. It also suggests greater coordination with European parties this time due to the Iranian-Russian role in the ongoing war in Ukraine and the recent developments regarding the Iranian nuclear program, with Iran moving ever closer to reaching the nuclear threshold. The West has a negative view of the Iranian role in threatening security and stability in the Middle East and strategic sea lanes in the region.
Since Raisi’s death, two conflicting trends within the Iranian establishment have competed to influence the direction of Iranian domestic policy. The first is the “hardliner” current which is guided by the dictates of ideology and seeks to challenge and confront reality through Iran embracing a radical conservative policy. The supporters of this current have gone to the extent of advocating for a change in Iran’s nuclear doctrine. This demand has been met with widespread international condemnation and concern. The choices of this current have ultimately led Iran to a historical impasse. The second current is much more realistic with it considering pragmatic choices to break the longstanding deadlock that Iran is experiencing at home and abroad. The first current represents the views of the IRGC, clerics, some legislators and those loyal to the supreme leader. The second current represents the “reformists” and what can be referred to as the current of openness and dialogue.
Zarif is at the heart of this realistic trend and has been one of its theorists and policy strategists since he was foreign minister in Rouhani’s government. He is the architect of the 2015 nuclear deal and spearheaded the approach of engaging in dialogue and reaching understandings with the West. His return to the Pezeshkian government as a shadow man who will play an influential role in shaping Iran’s strategic policy at the external level is nothing but an appointment engineered by the supreme leader to devise a realistic policy to help in overcoming Iran’s current predicament, especially after the Gaza war. Zarif’s presence as an active element in Iran’s foreign policy is based on internal consensus created by the supreme leader among the two currents. He will count on Zarif to steer an effective policy through which the Iranian establishment can ensure its survival and avoid losses that could overthrow the ruling establishment and cost the country its religious identity.
Iran’s Comprehensive Vision of Regional Security
In his article, Zarif introduced a vision of regional security and stability based on several pillars, most notably:
- –Achieving stability: According to Zarif, stability can be secured by improving relations with neighboring countries and creating a regional order that promotes strength, wealth, security, economic integration, freedom of navigation, environmental protection, and interfaith dialogue. This signals a vision that goes beyond security to economic cooperation and cultural and civilizational dialogue to overcome the sectarian barrier that has dominated Iran’s relationship with the countries of the region over the past decades.
- – New arrangements for regional security: These arrangements depend on reducing dependence on external powers, addressing conflicts through dispute resolution mechanisms, and replicating the Helsinki process in the region which sought to reduce tensions in Europe between the Soviet and Western blocs during the Cold War and led to the formation of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Zarif also called for implementing the mandate that the UN Security Council gave to the UN secretary-general in 1987, under Resolution 598 — which ended the Iran-Iraq War, as a legal basis for measures to enhance security and stability in the Arab Gulf.
- – Integrating Iran instead of the Abraham Accords: Zarif believes that these agreements have proved ineffective in isolating and besieging Iran. Therefore, he believes that it is necessary to get rid of them. He believes that the integration of Iran is what must be relied upon and that this can be done by addressing the roots of the conflict, and accepting Iran as part of the regional project. Zarif addressed the region’s countries by saying that all countries are interested in overcoming the underlying causes of regional unrest.
- The settlement of the Palestinian question: Zarif believes that Iran and the Arab countries unanimously agree on resolving the Palestinian issue. In this context, Zarif introduced a more nuanced approach that differs drastically from the official Iranian anti-Israel rhetoric. However, he stressed ending the occupation and the inability of the occupation to eradicate grassroots resistance movements. He presented Iran as a constructive player in settling the conflict and reaching a permanent and democratic solution, which does not deny the presence of Jews in the Palestinian territories, a position that the ruling establishment has embraced. Zarif proposes a referendum in which everyone living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean — Muslims, Christians, Jews, and even the Palestinian diaspora — would be able to participate in determining a viable future system of governance.
- A framework for Gulf security: Zarif believes that constructive engagement with Iran and a commitment to multilateral diplomacy can build a framework for global security and stability in the Arab Gulf. This system, Zarif believes, can reduce tensions and foster long-term prosperity and development.
- The role of external powers: Regarding the relationship with the United States, Zarif believes that Western pressure on Iran is futile and that this policy is counterproductive. Zarif believes that after Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, the Iranian nuclear program entered an uncertain phase. Zarif holds Trump responsible for this phase. Furthermore, he states that dependence on external powers in the region should be reduced. Despite the challenges, he proposes reviving the nuclear deal if Iran benefits from its advantages.
Implications and Messages
Zarif’s article holds important implications and messages, most notably the following:
- – A more comprehensive vision: Iran’s regional initiatives have always been fragmented, such as the Hormuz Peace Initiative or the previous initiatives for dialogue with the Gulf states. However, Zarif’s vision seems to be more integrated and comprehensive. It includes all Arab countries. It puts forward a vision regarding the most complex issue in the region, the Palestinian issue. However, this vision does not correspond to the Arab proposal to settle the issue through the Arab Initiative. Moreover, Zarif’s vision comes amid mounting pressure on Iran, and its realistic basis does not push Iran to make far-fetched promises and ensures that its political rhetoric and agenda align with new approaches and behavior in the region.
- – The desire to open up: There is a growing sense of realism in determining Iran’s foreign policy and awareness of the seriousness of the current situation. Zarif’s vision is consistent with many initiatives made by Iran regarding dialogue and openness. Notably, in November 2024, Iran received the International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi and proposed cooperation on the suspension of uranium enrichment and the return of international inspectors to work in Iran. In addition, Iran has engaged in dialogue with the European countries that participated in the nuclear deal. The two sides discussed the Iranian nuclear program, Iran-Russia relations, and Iran’s influence in the Middle East. Zarif’s article reflects the momentum of the policy of openness and dialogue that the Pezeshkian government aims to pursue.
- A change of approach and preparations for Trump 2.0: This momentum in openness and dialogue with the enemy would not have been possible without the authorization of Khamenei. The election of “reformist” Pezeshkian through an electoral process that many believed was engineered, was done to diminish the pressure on Iran and in anticipation of Trump’s return to the White House. Therefore, Zarif, the strategic mind of the Pezeshkian government, is responsible for crafting a flexible policy based on diplomatic engagement and dialogue instead of an aggressive and confrontational approach. This could help Iran avoid the expected wave of escalation, quell Trump’s anger and desire for revenge, and contain his aggressive approach. All this clears the way for a possible change at the international and regional levels.
- – An opportunity for change: Zarif could not have written his article without internal and institutional consultation due to his official post. Therefore, his vision reflects the outlook of the Pezeshkian government. Suppose it is true that there is strong support for Zarif’s vision, especially from the most influential parties such as the supreme leader and the National Security Council, then in this case, there is a clear prospect for a significant breakthrough in the barrier that Iran has built with the West and region. This article is a signal to internal and external audiences. Accordingly, Iran can be integrated, especially as the international arena witnesses cooperative and competitive relations. These different styles of relations can be managed to achieve common interests and reduce tensions. The regional states adopt independent foreign policies that favor collective action when it comes to new arrangements to achieve national interests rather than seeking to entrench the hegemony of international powers.
- – Alignment with the Saudi vision: The new Saudi policy has positively impacted the region, including Iran. As a result, Saudi Arabia has emerged as a pivotal regional and international player in promoting stability and peace in accordance with its Vision 2030 goals. It has strengthened its regional position and global status as an emerging power. The kingdom was among the first to launch a comprehensive regional stability initiative. This approach started with the reconciliation with Iran, settling differences with regional powers, resolving problems, opening up to regional powers, diversifying global partnerships, and not engaging in conflicting regional blocs nor submitting to the dictates of major powers. This has yielded positive results that support the development plan and Vision 2030. In addition, Saudi Arabia has avoided the negative repercussions of the regional conflict and protected itself from polarization. Iran, which views Saudi Arabia as a regional rival, was significantly affected by the dominant “hardliner” trend, however, the dialogue that followed the reconciliation has led to converging views on regional arrangements, the region’s future, and its system. The two sides can propagate a more coordinated vision to create a new regional reality based on cooperation and non-polarization, deeper collaboration, and conflict management and settlements through peaceful mechanisms.
In summary, it can be stated that Iran has allowed this vision to emerge because its regional project — through which it hoped to strengthen its regional clout — faced serious setbacks. The Iranian establishment is currently facing unprecedented challenges and threats, prompting a shift toward realism and the use of Zarif’s foreign policy expertise to navigate its way out of the current crisis. This shift has become necessary as the perspectives of the conservative and radical factions, which have led the establishment and the country toward a dangerous situation, have proven inadequate.
It is perhaps crucial to seize the current opportunity to engage with Iran, assist it in overcoming ideological constraints, and dismantle the hostility and interference it has exerted over the region. Saudi Arabia, more than any other nation, has the potential to help create a new reality that fosters a more secure and stable Middle East that includes Iran. The Saudi leadership has consistently emphasized that it does not oppose Iran’s role as an active and participatory regional power, provided it refrains from being an interventionist force and an instigator of chaos.
Opinions in this article reflect the writer’s point of view, not necessarily the view of Rasanah
