Iran Fails to Execute the “Hard Revenge” It Vowed a Year After Soleimani’s Death

https://rasanah-iiis.org/english/?p=8722

ByRasanah

Despite  the killing of Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani by US forces in Iraq in January 2020,  Iran did not deliver the  “hard revenge” it had promised. Soleimani was killed by a US rocket strike in the vicinity of Baghdad’s international airport. His killing signified US military might in the Middle East, and thwarted   Iran’s attempts to widen its influence in the region without fear of US retaliation. 

In response to the killing of Soleimani, Iran launched missile attacks  targeting two Iraqi bases housing US forces.  However, Iran had sent an official verbal message to Iraq, forewarning that it would target US forces. This was a clear indication that Iran could not afford to enter a full blown conflict with the United States. To avert national criticism over its extremely limited action, Iran claimed that its regional allies urged it to show military restraint.

 Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), recently  acknowledged that last year’s  missile attacks targeting US forces in Iraq were not meant to kill or injure US forces. Iran’s offensive actions  last year were probably a continuation of Soleimani’s military stratagem in the Middle East. However, despite  its offensive operations, Iran did not succeed in gaining  Washington’s recognition in relation to its regional influence.

Iran did not halt its offensive operations: in March 2020, Iranian-backed militias attacked Iraq’s  Camp Taji. This  led to the killing of two Americans and a British national, but again, it fell short of the “hard revenge” that Iran had promised to deliver in response to the killing of Soleimani.

 There is a possibility that the attack intended  to signal Tehran’s deterrent capabilities to Washington amid  the rising  political tensions between the two countries.  Iran’s envoy at the United Nations, Majid Takht Ravanchi, had promised military action at some point, but the hardliner member of Iran’s Parliament, Mojtaba Zolnouri, vowed that  Tehran would never start a war over the killing of Soleimani. 

Tehran took no further large-scale military actions to avenge Soleimani’s killing.  Soleimani’s successor Esmail Qaani said that  Iran would act and indicated that those responsible for Soleimani’s killing would not be able to escape justice. Qaani even managed to raise concerns that an Iranian-led attack might take place on US soil, or  that the US Central Command  as well as several top US officials including President Donald Trump would be targeted.

 Apparently, Iran does not have the military power it has been boasting about. Iran’s inability to enact  the “hard revenge” it had promised in response to Soleimani’s killing indicates a potential decline in Tehran’s military power  in spite of the fact that  the IRGC has claimed  it has spent  $17 billion to build Iranian influence in the Middle East.

Iran’s standing is undermined by its constant bragging about its tremendous influence in the region, which is not reflective of the ground reality. In January, the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen was designated by the United States as a terrorist group. The recent attacks launched by militias close to Iran  targeting Yemen’s legitimate government, and the US Embassy in Iraq, have isolated Iran further and international pressure increases on Tehran to end its  belligerency in the region.

This January in Lebanon, people protested when posters of Soleimani were mounted on monuments in Beirut’s suburbs. The Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah movement vowed to avenge Soleimani’s killing, but it has not undertaken any action to date. 

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kazimi established closer relations with  the United States  and its Arab allies including Saudi Arabia, despite  the fact that  Iran  has a considerable amount of  influence over  Iraq’s government. Tehran was also unable to pressure Kazimi to adopt a soft policy towards Iranian proxies operating inside Iraq after Soleimani’s killing.  The Iraqi people believe that  one of their government’s main challenges is to disarm the Iranian-backed militias mushrooming across the country. 

For now, Iran is trying to depict a false image of  invincibility to uphold Soleimani’s legacy. To mark the anniversary of his death, Iran organized demonstrations in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square to prove that it retains  influence in Iraq.  However, according to some observers, the protests were likely initiated by Iran  to dissuade  Washington from launching an attack against it  in the remaining days of the Trump administration, taking into account  that Washington and Tehran are locked in a political and military deadlock

In late December, to put Iran on the back foot, the Pentagon flexed its military muscle by dispatching  an aircraft carrier, a guided missile submarine, cruisers and long-range bombers to the Gulf.   In addition, it supported  Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria.

Iran  has claimed that  the  United States and Israel aim to increase tensions in the Gulf, adding that it would not  provoke a military clash. In response to Washington sending military reinforcements to the Gulf,  the mood in Tehran is somber, as  the Iranian government has been unable to keep US troops  at arm’s length.

Instead, Iran is diverting attention from its failings  by publishing Soleimani’s memoir entitled, “I am Not Afraid of Anything.” Zeinab  Soleimani, who  the Iranian government uses to keep her father’s legacy alive  in Iranian minds,  heads the  Qassem Soleimani Foundation which promotes   the so-called “Soleimani doctrine of resistance” against  the United States. 

In addition to keeping Soleimani’s legacy alive, Iran  produces videos and computer games   and publishes books and records songs paying homage to  Soleimani and to promote him as a national hero.  Iran has invoked a national spirit to motivate  Iranian mothers to nurture and train  their sons to follow in Soleimani’s footsteps.  It is clear that these attempts to promote Soleimani as a national icon hide Iran’s failure to avenge his killing, with Tehran falling woefully short of the “hard revenge” it had promised.

Rasanah
Rasanah
Editorial Team