The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) issued the Iran Case File (ICF) for January 2022—providing readers in general and researchers in particular with an accurate account of the period under analysis. The aim is to understand the Iranian situation and gauge the Iranian government’s different positions and interactions. The report includes three main sections. The file is divided into three main parts: Internal Affairs, Arab affairs, and International Affairs.
In the Internal Affairs, the ICF sheds light on four files. The Ideological File addresses the causes of Iranian concern over the Taliban government. The file also casts light on the marginalization and persecution endured by Sunni scholars in Iran — with the aim of tightening the noose around any sect that could compete with the Shiite sect.
The Political File discusses the negative indicators of the Ebrahim Raisi government’s performance and the administrative problems the government is attempting to resolve. As to the Economic File, it casts light on the performance indicators of the Iranian economy in 2022 and how the government intends to address the challenges. The Military File touches on the naval drills bringing together Iran, Russia and China. It also reviews the signs of military relations between Iran and Myanmar and the possibility of seeing relations between the two countries growing in light of the isolation imposed on both countries. With regard to Arabian Affairs, the most salient developments are covered in four files. The Iran and the Gulf States file spotlights the signs of tensions in relations at the beginning of the new year, which coincided with Tehran’s return to the talks on the nuclear deal with the P4+1 group. The second file discusses the political and military shifts in the Yemeni arena. Meanwhile, the third file discusses the interactions among the Iraqi factions to shape the identity of the next government and lay out the new trajectory of the state. The fourth file addresses Iran’s continued maximization of its scope of influence in Syria and how it addresses the multiple challenges it is facing there. This is in addition to the mutual escalation between the pro-Iran proxy groups and US forces. The International Affairs casts light on the developments in US-Iran relations with a focus on the Vienna talks, the mutual sanctions and pressures and the two sides’ coordination at the international level. The file also discusses the developments related to relations between Iran and the European countries, the outcomes of which seem dependent on the final results of the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear file.