The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) has released its monthly report, Iran Case File (ICF) for March 2021, providing readers in general and researchers in particular an in-depth review and analysis of the Iranian situation, highlighting the most significant developments and interactions within this month.
The ICF is divided mainly into three main parts: Internal Affairs, Arab Affairs and International Affairs and each part is divided into sub-files.
The Ideological File reviews Iran’s response to the Pope’s visit to Iraq, and the reiteration of the conservatives’ opposition to signing the FATF regulations, as if they were a prelude to an expanded confrontation with the international community regarding money laundering issues and support for terrorist groups. The Political File explores the widening of the conflict between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on the one hand, and the hardline conservative movement on the other hand over signing the FATF regulations, as Rouhani believes that failure to sign these regulations gives enough justification for the EU countries not to activate the INSTEX mechanism, especially after Iran was reinstated on the FATF blacklist.
The Economic File deals with the dimensions of the signing of the Sino-Iranian cooperation agreement, and its implications internally, regionally and internationally. The Military File highlights Iran’s use of its military activities as a tool of pressure to motivate the United States to return to the JCPOA, as well as to deter the United States through raising the cost of any attack that may be carried out against it.
In the Arab Affairs section, the report navigates the impact of Iranian-Gulf interactions in light of the position of the new US administration, which appeared to be negative to some extent for the Gulf States as it formed a pressure factor for the Gulf region, a matter that necessitates the Gulf states to restructure the network of their relations and rebalance their interests in a way that mitigates the consequences of the unexpected change in the US situation. In the Yemeni file, the report reviews the Saudi initiative, which was a real test for the Iranian-Houthi side on the path of peaceful solutions. With regard to international affairs, the report deals with US-Iranian interactions as the two countries started on the indirect negotiations path initially through EU mediation. It also reviews the course of Iranian-European relations.